Analysts: It has become a consensus that the ECB will not cut interest rates. The market is focusing on whether the easing cycle has ended.


the market generally expects the European Central Bank to maintain its key interest rates unchanged at the monetary policy meeting in September. However, the key question now is whether the European Central Bank will clearly mention the end of its rate-cutting cycle on Thursday. Analysts at BBH pointed out: "The forward market prices a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in the next 12 months." In contrast, the majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the European Central Bank to have finished cutting rates. In addition, industry experts and analysts suggest that ECB President Lagarde and some of her colleagues have set a high bar for future rate cuts, with only a deterioration in economic growth prospects and a continued trend of deflation possibly convincing the European Central Bank to return to loose policies. Analysts at TD Securities said in anticipation of the ECB's policy statement: "The press conference will focus on economic resilience and reducing trade uncertainty. When asked about risks, Lagarde may insist that the committee is in a favorable position, but will not explicitly hint at future rate cuts."