Using history as a guide, the Fed's rate cut may break the September curse of US stocks


 there is an old saying on Wall Street that September is often the worst month of the year for the US stock market, a view supported by data over the past several decades. However, history may not repeat itself this month as the Federal Reserve policymakers seem prepared to continue cutting interest rates at their upcoming meeting. "Expectations of a rate cut by the Fed later this month may help reverse this trend," strategist Nathaniel said. "When the Fed cuts rates in a non-recessionary environment, returns in September tend to be higher." According to data analyzed by Welnhofer, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 1% decline in September since 1971, but when the Fed cuts rates in a non-recessionary economy, the index has averaged a 1.2% increase in September. The most recent exception to the September curse occurred last year when Fed officials cut rates by 50 basis points and the S&P 500 index rose 2% that month.