The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Written by 0xBrooker
The market dividends since the “reciprocal tariff war” entered the third phase have been exhausted.
As the "big beautiful plan" led by Trump was approved by the House of Representatives, the "U.S. debt crisis" once again cooled the market's bullish enthusiasm. Coupled with Trump's statement that he wanted to impose excessive tariffs on the European Union again, the United States once again saw a triple kill situation of "stocks, bonds and currencies".
Driven by capital inflows and the passage of the “Stablecoin Act”, BTC saw a surge in long sentiment in the first half of the week, breaking through the “Trump bottom” to set a new all-time high in U.S. dollars.
The capital inflow increased, but the selling also began to increase, but the overall selling pressure was still small, showing that BTC was still dominated by upward momentum, and the temporary adjustment might end at any time.
Since May, the framework of global risk traders has gradually adjusted back to the game of US economic and employment fundamentals and interest rate policies. This week, the "gray rhino" hanging over the US economy and financial markets has reappeared as a threat.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is a comprehensive fiscal legislation pushed by US President Trump. Its official name is "One Big Beautiful Bill Act". The bill involves multiple areas such as taxation, immigration, health care, border security, etc., and aims to achieve Trump's governing agenda through tax cuts and policy reforms. On May 22, the bill was approved by the US House of Representatives and has been transferred to the Senate for deliberation.
The bill involves many areas, and the increase in spending and the reduction in tax revenue will eventually require the US debt ceiling to be raised to $4 trillion. This will increase the US debt ceiling from the current $36.1 trillion to $40.1 trillion. By then, the maximum debt will reach 140% of GDP, a record high.
This has made the market further pessimistic about the U.S. government's ability and willingness to repay its debts, and the attractiveness of U.S. debt has further declined. Currently, U.S. debt has lost all top ratings from the three major rating agencies.